National Clean Development Strategy is a strategic document that all the Member States have to carried out, demonstrating how the 2050 GHG net zero emission target can be reached. REKK provided modelling support and leading the development of low-carbon scenarios (policies/technologies options). The modelling support includes the integration of HU-TIMES model to a macro-economic model – GEM – and simulations of alternative scenarios with HU-TIMES models. REKK set-up, analyzed three different scenarios – a business as usual, and two alternative decarbonization scenarios – and quantified the main results of the energy sector modelling, including the additional cost, the mix of the energy consumption in the different subsectors and the GHG emissions.
The main objective of the project is to elaborate a country-specific modelling system for Hungary based on the TIMES modelling system which will serve as a basis for the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) of Hungary, fulfilling EU reporting requirements.
The model covers the energy sector of Hungary, including the energy transformation sectors, energy related processes of the industrial sectors, transport and building related energy services of households and the tertiary sectors. The projections cover the period until 2050, also elaborating milestones for 2030 which are in line with 2050 ambitions.
The TIMES model can serve as a central part of the overall national energy and climate modelling system, that could be linked to other models and estimations, e.g. related to the LULUC sector, agriculture etc.
The focus of the study is renewable energy based power sources in Hungary. First, we estimate the potential of the different technologies, then we calculate the costs associated with exploiting these potentials. We center our study around innovative technologies, we neither analyse residential firewood usage nor renewable based heating energy except for solar panels, heat pumps and district heating. Our aim is to provide support for the Hungarian government to set a renewable target for 2030 which is achievable with realistic associated costs. For this reason, we present an aggregated cost curve of renewables for 2030. This curve shows the need for support in order to increase renewable energy use for all the investigated technologies. We only estimate the cost of reaching the aggregated renewable target values and do not consider the renewable based transportation targets separately. However, our work provides several guidelines associated with green transportation too.