Pierre Siklós is the guest of the Insitute of Economics’ Research Seminar
At the Research Seminar Pierre Siklós will present his ongoing research: “Central Bank Speeches by the Fed and the ECB: How Mandates Influence the Content and Tone of What’s Said Over Time”.We analyze the evolution and short-term sentiment dynamics of speeches by members of the FED Board of Governors and members of the Executive Board of the ECB regarding inflation, employment and unemployment. Using Structural Topic Modeling, we find that employment topics have become less relevant to ECB Executive Board members over time especially since the international financial crisis of 2007-9. The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has not produced a course correction. In contrast, Fed governors discuss employment more from a business cycle stabilization perspective than a structural view of the issues. We also find that both current and expected inflation drive the short-term sentiment dynamics of speeches by ECB Executive Board members. Taylor rule like factors do not appear to explain the tone of speeches by members of the FED Board of Governors. Generally, both central banks have ‘talked’ more alike than might be expected given their different statutory mandates.
The language of the Research Seminar is English, and it will be held in hybrid format.
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