Inflation and demography through timeThe organizers of the Research Seminar of the Mathematical and Statistical Modeling Institute cordially invite everyone interested to the following presentation:
Dr. Előd Takáts (Bank for International Settlement (BIS))
Demography accounts for a large share of low frequency inflation variation in 22 countries from 1870 to 2016. The dependent population (young and old) is associated with higher, and the working age population with lower inflation. The relationship is robust across different sub-samples and specifications, including dynamic Phillips curve settings, suggesting that it is not spurious. A natural experiment involving exogenous population shocks from the two world wars provides further support for the relationship. The observed pattern is broadly consistent with delayed monetary policy responses to demography-induced changes in the natural interest rate.
- Topic: MSMI seminar: Előd Takáts
- Time: Apr 23, 2021 01:40 PM Budapest
- Join Zoom Meeting.
- Meeting ID: 970 6222 3698
- Passcode: 446974