Dr Pavel Foltin heads the Department of Risk Engineering at the Institute of Forensic Engineering at Brno University of Technology. His academic and professional path has traversed both military and civilian domains, always focusing on one key challenge: how to understand, manage, and anticipate risks in complex, interconnected systems.  

“In fact, the risk is around us, and it does not distinguish between civil and military sectors,” he says, summarising a career that has included appointments at the University of Defense in Brno and ongoing cooperation with the Corvinus University’s CIAS. 

Dr Foltin’s current research project as a non-resident research fellow at CIAS is titled “A study on indices, composite indicators, and early warning signals for socio-economic forecasting”. While that may sound technical, the core idea is intuitive: How can we predict the capacity of societies to better absorb and sustain disruptions from natural disasters to political instability, before they escalate into crises?  

The researcher’s previous work focused on supply chain risk analysis. This work laid the foundation for the current project, which expands the scope from logistics to a broader economic and societal perspective. 

Dr Foltin is working at CIAS independently, using inputs from colleagues but driving the analysis and development himself. The final output will be a unique methodology introducing early warnings to properly react to possible disruptive events, to utilise available limited socioeconomic resources to maximise the required effects. Research results will be introduced in series of scientific publications, not only sharing results but also protecting the originality of the methodology. 

“We realised that supply chain robustness is not only about logistics and supply chains, but also about how economies and societies can absorb disruptions — whether it’s a flood, a blackout, or a cyberattack,” he explains, adding that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the world saw firsthand how even highly optimised sectors like automotive production were vulnerable: “There were still car factories ready to produce, but one missing part held everything up.”  

At the heart of his current research at CIAS is the development of a Security Index, a composite measure designed to help governments and businesses identify early warning signals and better prepare for systemic shocks. It includes indicators on economic robustness, household vulnerability, cybersecurity, environmental risks, and infrastructure resilience. 

“Our aim is not to predict exact events but understand where vulnerabilities lie and how resilient a country or whole regions might be,” the researcher explains. He uses the example of a recent blackout in Spain and Portugal: “Our economies are so dependent on digital infrastructure that if the internet goes down, everything stops. The question is — can a society absorb such disruption and keep functioning?” 

One of the most compelling metaphors he offers is comparing society to an ant colony: “If one part is disturbed, the system reorganises itself. Societies work the same way. They adapt. They survive.” 

Dr Foltin notes that the impact of disruption isn’t always visible in traditional macroeconomic indicators. “Even after major earthquakes or conflicts, macroeconomic data like GDP may remain stable — but social impact and systemic strain can be deep and long-lasting,” the researcher says. The Security Index aims to reveal these underlying pressures and to answer the vital question: What might happen next — if the current trends continue?  

The researcher emphasises that the Security Index could be useful for a range of users: “Governments can use it to focus on weak points, like cybersecurity or environmental risk. Companies can use it to decide where to invest, in which country or region their investments could be less vulnerable to possible disruptions. Even insurance companies can assess regional risks better”.  

While there are many indexes out there, he believes his approach is unique: “We’re not just combining existing indexes. We’re building a composite that includes security and resilience as essential to socioeconomic forecasting.” According to Dr Foltin, one challenge in this research is accessing consistent and comprehensive datasets. Although reliable databases like Eurostat or the OECD exist, not all countries are equally covered, and methodologies sometimes vary across through years. “This is the paradox of the big data era” he notes. “We have vast volumes of information, but when you need specific, structured and comparable inputs, some parts are often missing”. He acknowledges that more data would improve forecasts, but even now, the model offers “early warning signals that help anticipate social and economic stress before it fully materialises”.