National Research, Development and Innovation Office
From 10-2016
to 10-2020
48 months
Analyzing financial networks using the tools of game theory
In this project we will analyse financial networks at which agents have mutual financial claims on each other. Each agent is characterized by its endowment (all tangible and intangible assets, excluding the claims from agents inside the network) and its liabilities to the other agents. Agents' assets (endowments and claims collected from other agents) might not be sufficient to satisfy their liabilities and agents may therefore default. A default can also occur due to contagion, when an agent defaults only because other agents are not fully paying their liabilities to it. As motivating examples one can think of the latest financial crisis triggered by the Lehman bankruptcy or sovereign debt problems of European countries.
If an agent is bankrupt, then its bankruptcy rule specifies how to split up its assets (which in a financial network depends on the payments of other agents) among its creditors. A typical example for a bankruptcy rule would be the proportional rule, where a bankrupt agent’s assets are divided in proportional to the claims. In financial networks there can be agent specific bankruptcy rules resulting in clearing payments.
The aim of the project is to extend the analysis and understanding of bankruptcy situations in financial networks using game theory.
Participant: Péter Csóka |
From 06-2016
ongoing
Pricing on interbank markets
Using Hungarian and Polish interbank market dataset we describe the trading network, the pricing of the large players and characterize the market. We compare the main result for the two countries.
Participants: Dániel Havran, Michal Konopczak (Warsaw School of Economics, National Bank of Poland) |
Corvinus University of Budapest - Figyelő business weekly
From 06-2016
to 10-2016
4 months
Limitations and possibilities of growth for the TOP200 Hungarian companies
The aim of the of the research was to identify key trends and patterns in the growth of the 200 Hungarian companies with the top most sales. Besides of analysing financial statements a questionnaire has been used to uncover most important development areas and key success factors for the last three years. The major limits and challenges of growth and the vital development fields for the next three years were also identified. Various subgroups based on export focus, location, ownership and efficiency were tested for differences. Development strategies and historical experiences of the firms were also checked for consistency.
Participants: Péter Juhász, László Reszegi and Annamária Kazainé Ónodi |
KELER, Hungarian Clearing House and Central Counterparty
From 06-2016
to 09-2016
3 months
Validation of risk models' adjustments
Based on the available documentations and on-site interviews, we performed an independent validation according to EMIR regulation and the supplementing regulation of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No 153/2013 on the planned modifications of risk management models of KELER CCP Ltd.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Barbara Dömötör, Ferenc Illés |
Corvinus University of Budapest
From 05 2016
to 09 2016
4 month
Current regulation and limits of going public in Hungary
The research aims to gain an overview on what modifications may be needed in the current regulations and institutional solutions to promote Hungarian firms going public at the Budapest Stock Exchange. BEsides of comparative analysis of the region various in depth interviews with market players were carried out.
Participants: Péter Juhász, Gergely Fazakas |
KELER, Central Counterparty
From 02-2016
to 08-2016
6 months
Risk management models adjustments
The aim of the research was to develop the risk management models of KELER CCP Ltd., based on the latest market needs.
Participant: Kata Váradi |
From 01-2016
ongoing
Risk appetite framework at financial sector
Based an anonymous survey focusing on Risk Appetite Framework in the financial sector we exam the situation of risk appetite systems, the benefits and the obstacles of implementation.
Participants: Zsuzsanna Tamásné Vőneki, dr. Gabriella Lamanda |
From 06-2015
ongoing
Explanation of the cross-section correlation of the most liquid stock on the Indian Market
Using the stock dataset of the National Stock Exchange of India, we analyze the trading synchronicities among the largest 100 securities. By computing intraday R-squared measures for 30 minutes trading sessions, we describe the seasonal and cross-sectional properties of trading determined by the systematic factor.
Participants: Dániel Havran, Aravind Sampath (Indian Institute of Management Kozhidoke), Arun G. Kumar (Indian Institute of Technology Madras) |
Department of Finance, Corvinus University of Budapest
From 05-2014
to 06-2016
26 months
Case Studies in Finance
Our educational experience shows that case studies are very effective tools to help students in receiving new information, and to optimize their ability to solve problems. These real-life stories on firms’ investment decisions and corporate finance practice help professors to involve students, make them finding solutions to explicit problems, analyse possible options and to argue for different points of views. This is why a collection of cases was published. The book contains 34 cases, some of them have certain subcases as well, so altogether about 50 different problems are presented.
Participants: Gergely Fazakas and György Walter (editors, coordinators), Barbara Dömötör, Edina Berlinger, Péter Juhász, Péter Csóka, Balázs Márkus, Roland Madácsi, Erika Jáki, Máté Fáin, Zsuzsa Tamásné Vőneki, Csilla Heinlich, Nóra Felföldi-Szűcs, Árpád Balázs Szűcs. |
International Training Center for Bankers
From 03-2014
to 05-2015
15 months
Research in Liquidity Risk
The research aims at developing mathematical models measuring risks that banks are facing and quantifying capital requirement according to the latest Basel regulation. The research focuses on market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk and secondary risk types. The project is supported by the Hungarian Government’s Research and Technological Innovation Fund.
Particpants: János Száz, Péter Medvegyev, Barbara Dömötör (among many other researchers) |
Centre for Quality Assessment in Higher Education, Lithuania
From 01-2014
to 03-2014
3 months
Assessment of university programs
Evaluation of finance undergraduate programs at higher education institutions in Lithuania as a member of an international expert team.
Participants: Dániel Havran |
KELER, Hungarian Clearing House and Central Counterparty
From 12-2013
to 01-2014
2 months
Validation of risk models
Based on the available documentations and on-site interviews, we performed an independent validation according to EMIR regulation and the supplementing regulation of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No 153/2013 on risk management models of KELER CCP Ltd.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Péter Csóka, Barbara Dömötör, László Kóczy, Balázs Sziklai, Kata Váradi |
European Union and the State of Hungary, co-financed by the European Social Fund in the framework of TÁMOP
From 11-2013
to 10-2014
12 months
Measuring and Managing Liquidity Dynamically
The main focus of my research would be to work out a method that could measure and manage market liquidity dynamically, in order to be able to quantify the real liqudity of the market. To tell something about a certain security's or about the whole market's liquidity, if one has a longer time period - e.g. a day - to liquidate a position, or to build up one, is not easy, since there isn't any indicator that would measure properly the liqudity dynamically.
Participants: Kata Váradi |
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
From 09-2013
to 08-2015
2 years
During this period of the scholarship, I worked on academic projects on some topics related to market microstructure. Title of the research projects:
Microstructure of the Financial Markets: What Do We Lose Due to the Presence of the Market Frictions?, with Tamás Erb
Explaining the Network of Liquidity Providers on the OTC Markets, with Árpád Balázs Szűcs
Components of the Market Resiliency: Recovery Dynamics on the Order-Driven Markets, with Kata Váradi
Participants: Dániel Havran (Postdoc Researcher, MTA-KRTK Institute of Economics), Tamás Erb, Árpád Balázs Szűcs, Kata Váradi |
The Central Bank of Hungary
From 03-2013
to 07-2013
4 months
The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Central Bank Balance Sheets in Emerging Economies
The trend of rapid expansion in central bank balance sheets and the resulting higher need for sterilization was not solely a Hungarian phenomenon, it represented a challenge for many central banks around the world. We investigated changes in central bank balance sheets and the non-conventional central bank measures triggered by the crisis. The paper has won a “Golden Award” in the internal competition of the MNB.
Participants: Szilárd Erhart, Gergely Kicsák, Zsolt Kuti, Zoltán Molnár, Zoltán Monostori |
The Central Bank of Hungary
From 03-2013
to 04-2013
1 month
Analysis of the Small, Non-Eurozone Member, EU-Member Countries’ Central Banking Practice
In this article we investigated the practice of the Czech, Danish, Polish, Romanian and Swedish central banks, focusing especially on monetary policy instruments, balance sheets, international reserves and the effect on banking system liabilities. The paper was useful for new central bank leaders by investigating different international practices.
Participants: Péter Kálmán, Zsolt Kuti, Zoltán Molnár, Zoltán Monostori |
AXA Research Fund
From 12-2012
to 11-2014
24 months
Network of general practitioners and specialists: Profiting from the knowledge about their professional interaction
This project investigates the determinants of pharmaceutical innovation diffusion among specialists. To this end, it investigates the influences of six categories of factors—social embeddedness, socio-demography, scientific orientation, prescribing patterns, practice characteristics, and patient panel composition—on the use of new drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Hungary. The Cox proportional hazards model identified three determinants: social contagion (in the social embeddedness category) and prescribing portfolio and insulin prescribing ratio (in the prescribing pattern category). Within this project we also describe the characteristics of the GP–SP relationship in shared care systems. First, we describe the collaboration structure among doctor. Second, we identify the professional and socio-demographic characteristics of GPs with the most concentrated patient split. Third, we investigate the characteristics of the strongest GP–SP relationships.
Participants: Gábor Benedek, Ágnes Lublóy, Judit Lilla Keresztúri, Kata Váradi |
FuturICT.hu – Infocommunication technologies and the society of the future
From 11-2012
to 11-2014
2 years
Financial systems subproject
Infection analysis and the investigation of cascade effects focus on graph modelling of the interrelated business entities and on evaluating the speed and radius of an infection or the probability of a system collapse. Game theoretical investigations are pursued to measure the fairness of contracts and corresponding risk distributions, and multimedia data mining is applied to reveal the sentiments of a business and discover the correlation and impact of sentiments on the stock prices. In this way, a fast identification of favourable patterns in time series becomes feasible on small time scales, which can give rise to profitable trading where asset prices can follow each other in second and millisecond intervals.
Participants: Péter Csóka, Dániel Havran, Nóra Szűcs |
The Central Bank of Hungary
From 10-2012
to 10-2014
24 months
Country-Specific Determinants of Sovereign CDS Spreads: the Role of Fundamentals in Eastern Europe
In countries like Hungary, the magnitude of sovereign risk premia is an important input in monetary policy decisions. According to the theory, CDS spreads will adjust in the long-term to a fundamental value affected by global, regional and country-specific fundamentals. We estimated dynamic fundamental relative CDS prices for nine Eastern-European countries based on their fundamentals, helping policy makers to see whether recent changes in CDS spreads were caused by changing fundamentals or other reasons.
Particpants: Zalán Kocsis, Zoltán Monostori |
ING Bank
From 09-2012
to 09-2013
12 months
Corporate risk management practice
The research investigated the risk management practice of Hungarian large corporations. The focus was on the hedging of market risk, we analyzed the risk attitude, the main exposures and the hedging strategies based on a survey and personal interviews with financial experts. The main question of the research was how liquidity considerations appear in the financial decision making.
Participants: Barbara Dömötör |
Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA)
From 09-2012
to 09-2016
4 years
Risk allocation in illiquid markets and in case of systemic risk
If a financial enterprise (bank, insurance company, investment fund, etc.) consists of subunits (individuals, products, subportfolios, divisions etc.), not only is it important to measure properly the risk of the main entity, but also to allocate the diversification benefits to the subunits using a proper risk allocation method. The purpose of the project is to analyze risk allocation in illiquid markets and in case of systemic risk, using game theory and simulation.
Participants: Péter Csóka |
Research Centre for Business Development (Corvinus University)
From 06-2012
ongoing
The effect of export on the functioning of the Hungarian firms
Export is one of the key drivers of the Hungarian economy. During recent years governmental policy focused on increasing export but it is unclear whether stimulating economic growth is just simple as that. The research focused on how to be a successful exporter and how and why exporters differ across efficiency and productivity. We also analysed the structure of the Hungarian economy to see whether excellent performance is only possible by focusing on foreign markets. Results have been published in various lectures, articles, and two books.
Particpants: Péter Juhász (among many other researchers) |
The Central Bank of Hungary
From 06-2012
to 11-2012
6 months
Network analysis of the Hungarian interbank deposit market
Networks change in time and the changes in the network topology may characterize and in some cases even forecast liquidity crises. We examined the Hungarian interbank deposit market between 2003 and 2012 and investigate the behavior of the players, the flows of funding and the corresponding graph measures. These results can be used as inputs of an “early warning system” and also may help to detect systematically important players.
Participants: Gábor Benedek, Edina Berlinger, Márton Michaletzky |
The Central Bank of Hungary
From 03-2012
to 10-2013
17 months
Discriminatory versus Uniform-price Auctions
The goal of the analysis was the comparison of the two most commonly used auction techniques (discriminatory and uniform price auctions) through the summary of the relevant literature. Among several other countries, Poland has changed its auction method in 2012 on the T-bond and T-bill markets from the previously used discriminatory format to the uniform price formula. In Hungary, both the Government Debt Management Agency (in the case of T-Bonds and T-bills) and the MNB (in the case of FX, FX-swaps, Credit auctions) still use the discriminatory format. The most important goal of the analysis was to review the arguments for and against the different formulas.
Participants: Zoltán Monostori |
The Central Bank of Hungary
From 01-2012
to 02-2013
13 months
Analysis of the Crisis on the Hungarian
Government Bond Markets in the Winter of 2011-2012: Was that a Liquidity Problem? In the winter of 2011-2012, Hungarian financial markets experienced a strong drying out. The objective of this project was to investigate the magnitude and the causes of the deteriorating liquidity.
Participants: Zoltán Monostori |
National University of Singapore
From 15-09-2011
to 15-12-2011
3 months
Visiting researcher
The program was funded by Corvinus Visiting Scholar Programme,TÁMOP-4.2.1/B-09/1/KMR-2010-0005. Joint work with Zsuzsa R. Huszár (National University of Singapore, NUS Business School, Department of Finance) 3 months Title of the project: Cash as the proxy for competitiveness? The role of financial slack in corporate financial risk management
Participants: Dániel Havran |
Ministry of Education and Sciences of Albania
From 06-2011
to 09-2011
3 months
Design of a student loan system for Albania
The overall objective of the project was to investigate options for the feasibility of establishing a student loan scheme for Albania, identifying the conditions needed for its successful operation and to propose the steps and a timetable for implementation.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Gyula Gilly |
The Central Bank of Hungary
From 06-2011
to 12-2012
18 months
Creating a New Balance Sheet Strategy for the MNB, the Central Bank of Hungary
After the sharp increase of the operational liquidity surplus in Hungary through the crisis, the huge amount of sterilization instruments created new risks in the Hungarian financial system. This analysis investigated the new risks and the possible policy responses of the central bank.
Participants: Csaba Balogh, Szilárd Erhart, Zoltán Monostori |
MSCI
From 05-2011
to 05-2012
1 year
Order execution strategies – How traders do it?
Market players have some ideas about market liquidity tendencies. Based on this they develop effective order-splitting and timing strategies. In this research project we make interviews with different types of traders and investigate how they try to optimize their trading in practice (typical situations, rules of thumb etc.)?
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Kata Váradi, Árpád Szűcs Balázs, Márton Michaletzky |
MSCI
From 05-2011
to 05-2012
1 year
Measuring and allocating risk of illiquid portfolios
In finance risk capital allocation is an important question from both theoretical and practical point of view. How to share risk of a portfolio among its subportfolios? How to reserve capital in order to hedge existing risk and how to assign this to different business units? We use an axiomatic approach to examine risk capital allocation, i.e. we call for fundamental properties of the methods. The starting point of this working paper is the theorem of Csóka and Pintér (2010) who showed that the requirements of Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity are irreconcilable given that risk is quantified by a coherent measure of risk. In this project we examine these requirements using analytical and simulation tools.
Participants: Péter Csóka, Dóra Balog, Tamás László Bátyi, Miklós Pintér |
MSCI
From 05-2011
to 05-2012
1 year
Optimal hedging strategy in case of liquidity risk
The optimal hedging is investigated in case of liquidity risk: a theoretical model is built based on the model of Korn (2003), which considers not only the liquidity cost, but the expected value of the hedging position as well. The other direction of the investigation is the modeling of several hedging strategies, in order to support the financial decision making by quantifying the expected funding ratio (financing need) connecting to them.
Participants: Barbara Dömötör |
|
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
From 02-2011
to 05-2015
4 years and 3 months
Research Group in Game theory
The research group supported by the Momentum Programme of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences aims at understanding, modelling and solving certain problems within the realm of game theory. The focus of research is at cooperative games, where the players' interactions generate externalities, that is, third parties, not directly participating in the activities may get affected. In partition function form games the third party is a third player or another coalition, while in dynamic cooperative games it may well be the future self of one of the acting agents. Besides the theoretical results the aim is also to apply them in economic models, of these the applications of power indices and matching models are especially prominent in the research profile.
Particpants: Edina Berlinger (since March 2014), Péter Csóka |
Morgan Stanley
From 02-2011
to 12-2011
10 months
Modeling market microstructure with interacting agents
The objective of the research project was to investigate a market with interacting agents with a focus on 1. the effect of heterogeneous information patterns and beliefs on liquidity, 2. the effect of heterogeneous agents who hedge their underlying position in a multi-asset market environment on market prices and liquidity.
Participants: Zsolt Bihary, Edina Berlinger, Gábor Fáth, Dániel Havran, István Margitai, Péter Medvegyev, Árpád Szűcs Balázs |
OTP Hungary-Projekt
From 02-2011
to 05-2011
3 months
Innovation capability of Hungarian Firms
Empirical research involving questionnaires on the innovation capability of Hungarian firms present mixed results due to the various interpretations of innovation amongst the questioned firms. We examine the relationship between the innovation activity of firms and the existence of different financing resources. We also examine the experience of corporations in tendering for financial support.
Participants: Anita Lovas (among many other researchers) |
Norway Grants
From 01-2011
to 03-2011
2 months
Market failures and the role of the state in sustainability
Subproject in HU0056 Sustainable consumption, production and communication, ELTE-Corvinus research project State interventions to promote sustainability can be justified on the grounds of market failures like non-contractible externalities, non-hedgeable risks and uncertainties and informational problems. In this research project I have analyzed these problems and prepared a literature review on the possible intervention strategies.
Participants: Edina Berlinger |
Budapest Stock Exchange
From 01-2011
to 12-2011
1 Year
Liquidity Adjusted Value-at-Risk models, and Price Impact Functions
Application of the Budapest Liquidity Measure in VaR measures, by estimating a Liquidity Adjusted Value-at-Risk model on the BLM database of the four blue-chip stocks of the Budapest Stock Exchange. The other goal of the research was to show the the BLM database can be used for estimating virtual price impact functions.
Participants: Ákos Gyarmati, Ágnes Lublóy, Márton Michaletzky, Kata Váradi |
TÁMOP-4.2.1/B-09/1/KMR-2010-0005 projekt
From 10-2010
to 03-2012
18 months
Churn Models at Mobile Providers - The Importance of Social Embeddedness
This research stressed the importance of social embeddedness at mobile providers by examining the effects of customers’ network topological properties on churn probability. This article used data from regional snowball sampling to identify groups with significantly different churn ratios for customers with different network topological properties. Clear evidence indicated that individual network characteristics have considerable impact on churn probabilities. This research also highlighted the importance and effectiveness of the provider’s tailored marketing campaigns by showing that customers targeted by direct marketing campaigns are less threatened by churn than non-targeted customers.
Participants: Gábor Benedek, Ágnes Lublóy, Gyula Vastag |
Hungarian Post Ltd.
From 07-2010
to 12-2010
6 Months
The effects of cash management changes on the Hungarian Post Ltd.
.
Participants: Péter Csóka, Dániel Havran, Anita Lovas, Kata Váradi |
European Commission
Directorate General for Education and Culture
From 03-2010
to 01-2011
10 Months
Feasibility study to examine the potential need for a student lending facility at European level,
N° EAC/47/2009 Joint research project led by LSE and PPMI
The overall policy objective is “to make lifelong learning and mobility a reality, by reducing financial barriers”. This Study investigates options for the feasibility of establishing a pan-EU student lending scheme in support of learning mobility, building upon earlier research in this area. Specific objectives of the research are (1) to undertake a review of existing student financial support; then (2) to evaluate where Community added value may exist in developing a lending facility to complement national/regional schemes in support of mobility. (3) Where added value is demonstrated, to investigate the feasibility for the establishment of a student lending facility at EU/EEA level.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Péter Csóka, Dániel Havran, Barbara Dömötör |
The Central Bank of Hungary
From 03-2010
to 08-2012
29 months
Decomposition of the Five-year Hungarian Sovereign Fixed Income Forint Yields
During the crisis, Hungary had to pay a large risk premium on T-Bonds, which had negative effects e.g. on government debt financing costs, investments, etc... In this paper I presented the factors that affect the Hungarian Government Bond prices. I attempted to answer the question: which premium had the most significant effect on the yields of the long-term government securities during the global economic crisis. In a small, open, net borrower economy like Hungary, the points of the yield curve are determined by the risk free return, the expected changes in exchange rates and the premium expected by the investors in return for the risk they run. The premium is affected by four major types of risks: credit risk, liquidity risk, currency risk and interest rates risk. I have explored these risks, and estimated the premia paid for them. The paper has won several awards and prices (2012 Eros Gyula Award, 2011 Second Price National Council of Students’ Scientific Workshops (OTDK), 2010 First Price Scientific Students’ Association (TDK)).
Participants: Zoltán Monostori |
CEDEFOP
European Centre for Development of Vocational Training
From 02-2010
to 12-2010
10 Months
The role of loans in financing vocational education and training in Europe
N° AO/RPA/PLI-PSZO/Loans/016/09 International Comparative Analysis, Research project led by PPMI
The aim of this research project is to commission a study for analysing the use of loans to finance and promote vocational education and training in selected EU Member States and to gain a clear understanding of the role of loans in financing and promoting vocational education and training in Europe. The study explains operation of loans, evaluate their implementation and provide policy and practice recommendations.
Participants: Edina Berlinger |
Budapest Stock Exchange
From 01-2010
to 12-2010
1 year
The Budapest Liquidity Measure
Application and analysis of the Budapest Liquidity Measure for the period of 2007-2010.
Participants: Ákos Gyarmati, Márton Michaletzky, Kata Váradi |
Pension and Old Age Round Table
From: 05-2008
to 02-2010
21 months
Expert
The Pension and Old Age Round Table is an Advisory Board of independent experts and delegation of stakeholder state and private institutions. The professional team makes proposals and reports on the reform of Hungarian pension system. My task was analyzing different system paradigms at international level. Title of my research project: “Pension paradigms in the OECD countries”
Participant: Dániel Havran |
World Bank
From 02-2008
to 08-2008
6 months
Design of student loan system for Bulgaria, International comparative analysis
Preparatory study and a concept for the Bulgarian government supported by World Bank. I worked together with Hungarian, Slovakian and Bulgarian consultants. The study was introducing theoretical and conceptual backgrounds and implementation strategy. My contribution mainly related to capital involvement issues, interest rate policy and risk management strategies. The project ended up in a study and was presented to the Bulgarian government representatives.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Gyula Gilly |
Generali-Providencia Insurance Co.
From 10-2007
to 12-2007
2 months
Pricing of a Special Structured Product, International Comparative Analysis
The objective was to develop a simulation model for pricing and sensitivity analysis purposes of a structured derivative product (Asian type basket quanto).
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Dániel Havran, Márton Michaletzky, Zsolt Tulassay |
Collegium Budapest Institute for Advanced Study
From 02-2007
to 10-2008
1.5 years
European Perspectives of Student Lending
British Hungarian Joint Research Project, International Comparative Analysis The program included COLBUD, British Council, LSE scholars and the Hungarian Student Loan Center. The project had three objectives: firstly a comparative analysis of existing student loan systems in HE; secondly the dissemination of the achievements of the Hungarian Student Loan system, thirdly exploring the future opportunities in student loaning in Europe. The first objectives resulted in a conference presentation in Slovenia and article in the Journal of Higher Education in Europe. The second part was presented in workshop in Budapest and a working paper was written.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Cécile Horeau |
British Council
From 11-2006
to 07-2007
8 months
Future of Higher Education in Europe, International Comparative Analysis
Discussion forums and workshops amongst several teams of European countries. The teams were participating in an international think thank workshop series to determine future strategies and scenarios for the European Higher Education in everyone’s own country. The program was finished by a conference and a book summarizing the findings and conclusions.
Participants: Edina Berlinger |
Hungarian Ministry of Labor
From 09-2006
to 12-2006
3 months
Improvement of the Hungarian Vocational Training System
As part of the main initiative to raise the respect and attractiveness of vocational education in Hungary the Ministry has decided to investigate the possibility to introduce a loan system for vocational students based on the success of a similar system in higher education. In our study we have developed several models and sharply separated the lifelong learning instruments from the under 18 regular educational instruments.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Erzsébet Kovács |
The Central Bank of Hungary
From 04-2006
to 10-2007
18 months
Operational Disruption in the Hungarian Real Time Gross Settlement System (VIBER)
In this research we focused on the operational resilience of the Hungarian real time gross settlement system, known as VIBER. The goal of the research was the quantitative assessment of the ability of the system to withstand certain types of operational shocks. Systemically important participants were identified and it was argued that they overlap with endangered participants. We measured the capacity of the system to function smoothly in the event of operational problems by simulating the technical default of one or two systemically important participants in VIBER.
Participants: Ágnes Lublóy, Eszter Tanai |
Hungarian Post Ltd.
From 03-2006
to 09-2010
4.5 years
Modeling of liquidity and cash management, design and implementation of integrated ERM model
Research projects on
• Modeling of liquidity and cash management (statistical models, simulations)
• Consultancy on designing enterprise risk management model
• Methods for forecasting cash circulation
We elaborated a micro level cash management model, analyzed the behavioral patterns of the post offices and derived consequences on the aggregate liquidity of the whole system. We have specified also the principles of a complex integrated enterprise risk management (ERM) model. We worked on the implementation of the ERM model, andprovided new methods on cash circulation forecasting also.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Dániel Havran, Péter Juhász, Zita Marossy, Zsolt Tulassay |
Collegium Budapest Institute for Advance Study
From 10-2005
to 10-2007
2 years
Risk-management of the student loan portfolio
Complex Systems, NAP Project
COLBUD was a multidisciplinary research institute with the participation of highly respected and known scholars from worldwide. NAP Project has been a European Funded mega-project. We have analyzed data of the repayment of the Hungarian student loan system, carried out simulations, designed optimal stochastic control in order to ensure the stability of the system and advise decision makers for the best interventions.
Participants: Edina Berlinger |
Collegium Budapest Institute for Advance Study
From 09-2005
to 06-2007
22 months
Payment flows in financial networks
Complex Systems, NAP Project The task included the assessment of the systemic risk implications of the Hungarian interbank market. In the simulations we applied various default definitions; market expectations and the multiple failures of banks with similar risk profiles were also captured. It has become clear for the regulator that contagion is limited in Hungary. The severity of contagion is small not only in terms of number of failing banks, or affected balance sheets, but also in terms of capital losses suffered by surviving banks. Moreover, the topology of the Hungarian real time gross settlement system (VIBER) and its systemic risk implications ware also assessed. We mapped the topology of the payment network and ability of the system to withstand certain types of operational disruption.
Participant: Ágnes Lublóy |
The Central Bank of Hungary
From 02-2005
to 05-2005
3 months
Topology of the Hungarian large-value transfer system
This research dealt with the topology of the Hungarian large-value transfer system, known as VIBER. The research was generally descriptive in nature, the goal of the research being the assessment of the payment topology. A graph theoretical framework was applied. It was shown that the structure of the payments was permanent; ad hoc relationships did not dominate the topology of the payments. The most central institutions were the same; the key players did not vary across days. One interesting feature of the topology was that only 30 per cent of the existing linkages were permanent linkages, although nearly 90 per cent of the payment orders were sent or received through these linkages. Furthermore, a well-defined group of institutions was identified; the illiquidity of these institutions could cause the most serious disruption of the payment system. Surprisingly, the institutions most capable of generating contagion were not the largest Hungarian banks measured by asset size. Rather they were directly or indirectly active players of the USD/HUF FX swap market.
Participant: Ágnes Lublóy |
Hungarian Ministry of Education
From 09-2004
to 09-2005
1 year
Joint model of pension and student loan systems
The objective of the research fellowship was to explore how the student loan and pension systems can be interconnected in order to exploit their synergies. It resulted in a study titled “Joint Model of Pension and Student Loan” in which I worked out and recommended the introduction of a new pension model.
Participants: Edina Berlinger |
Hungarian Student Loan Company
From 03-2004
to 11-2005
2.7 years
Stability Analysis
Policy makers wanted to refine and fine-tune the Hungarian Student Loan system and therefore and agent based modeling system was developed based on empirical data. Numerous suggestions were recommended based on the simulation results a large percentage of which was accepted and implemented. For instance loan amounts, eligibility criteria and internal regulation modifications.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Dániel Havran, Tamás Makara |
The Central Bank of Hungary
From 03-2004
to 06-2004
4 months
Systemic risk implications of the Hungarian interbank market
This research examined the domino effect induced by idiosyncratic bank failures in Hungary. The severity of contagion through credit exposures in the interbank market was measured by the number of bank failures, the capital loss distribution of the banking sector and the total assets of the affected banks. In the simulations different default definitions were applied, while the market expectations and multiple failures of banks with similar risk profiles were also captured. It was demonstrated that the entropy maximizing estimation procedure, widely applied by other authors to obtain bilateral exposures from aggregate data, significantly underestimated the risk of contagion. In Hungary the contagion was limited in both absolute and relative terms.
Participant: Ágnes Lublóy |
Venture Capital Funding for Information Technology
From 03-2004
to 08-2006
30 months
Evaluation of project proposals
Evaluation of 15 project proposals (evaluation of business plans, cash flow plans and balance sheets; placing a valuation on the project companies) for a state-owned venture capital firm funding projects related to information technology.
Participants: Gergely Fazakas, Ágnes Lublóy, Ágota Krénusz, Levente Zsembery |
Hungarian Development Bank
From 06-2002
to 12-2002
6 months
Student Loan Policy Alternatives
After delegating the ownership rights of the Student Loan Center to the HDB from the Ministry of Finance and Educational Ministry the new owner needed a situation assessment and strategy formulation for further actions. Therefore policy alternatives were developed and presented.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, György Walter, Levente Zsembery |
Procent Securities Ltd.
From 02-1999
to 08-1999
6 months
Development of Risk Management System
The project involved the implementation of the BASEL directives at this particular brokerage company. We provided an extensive and detailed specification based on which the risk management software was programmed.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, György Walter, Levente Zsembery |
Hungarian Ministry of Education
From 01-1999
to 09-2001
2.7 years
Design and Implementation of the Hungarian Student Loan System
On the initiation of the Hungarian Educational Ministry and financed by the World Bank, a British-Hungarian team with the leadership of the world famous Professor Nicholas Bar has been set for the design and implementation of the Hungarian Student Loan Scheme. This included the formulation of the financing strategy according to the local specialties based on the British theoretical foundations. As a result, a new model and a new institution has been created which we might consider in many aspects as an improved version of the British scheme.
Participants: Edina Berlinger, Gyula Gilly, György Walter, Levente Zsembery |
Research Centre for Competitiveness (Corvinus University)
From 01-1996
ongoing
Development of competitiveness of Hungarian firms
The research program launched in 1996 uses extended questionnaires filled in by top management of several hundred of selected companies to have a representative sample of the Hungarian firms. The survey is repeated each five years to get a continuously developing picture about the economy. Result have been published in several articles, research reports, lectures, chapters and booklets.
Participants: Péter Juhász (among many other researchers) |
